THREE huge points are on the line at Ewood Park as Blackburn Rovers and Millwall eye a chance to launch themselves away from the relegation mire.
Both sides sit on 39 points with a goal difference of -13 above four teams who are on 38 points, including third-bottom Stoke City.
The ridiculous tightness of the Championship’s bottom half means a couple of good results could see you leap up four or five places, while one or two defeats could leave only doomed Rotherham United below you in the table.
Neil Harris has delivered two wins from two on his Millwall return but the Lions remain just a point above the bottom three, the same situation they were in after the 2-0 loss to Sheffield Wednesday in Joe Edwards’ last game in charge.
That stat reflects the intensity of the scrap at the bottom where almost every side now appears to recognise the seriousness of the situation and are picking up points with regularity.
Blackburn, who were seventh in the Championship as recently as November, are one of the exceptions.
Rovers have self-imploded over the past few months and have just two wins from their last 17 league games.
Having been reportedly blocked by the club from attending his own pre-match press conference last month, Jon Dahl Tomasson left Ewood Park by mutual consent after a 2-1 defeat to Queens Park Rangers.
Former Birmingham City manager John Eustace was announced as his replacement 35 minutes later but he has lost two and drawn three of the five games he has presided over so far.
Despite their dreadful form and lowly-league position, the Lancashire side boast the league’s top scorer in Sammie Szmodics. He has 19 goals, two clear of the 17 goals Adam Armstrong has for Southampton and Morgan Whittaker has struck for Plymouth Argyle.
Szmodics scored in Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Swansea City on the weekend and will be the main threat for Millwall to watch out for.
Blackburn, meanwhile, are advised to keep an eye on Michael Obafemi who is surely due his first Lions goal soon.
Injuries to Tom Bradshaw and Kevin Nisbet mean Millwall are now reliant on the Burnley loanee up front.
This being a midweek game, Harris may be tempted to rotate and use some players he has not yet seen in a match situation.
Aidomo Emakhu and Romain Esse have yet to appear under the 46-year-old, which feels particularly unfortunate on Esse who was one of the few players who emerged from Edwards’ final weeks in charge with any credit.
Meanwhile, Adam Mayor, who will be in familiar territory tonight having left Lancashire-based club Morecambe to join Millwall, has been limited to just 32 minutes since his January arrival.
Ultimately the game time needs of squad players will not be a priority for Harris right now with Championship survival the most important thing. Only time will tell how critical the game tonight will be in that aim.
Back in October, with Adam Barrett in caretaker charge, Millwall took the lead through Wes Harding but lost 2-1 to Blackburn after goals from Joe Rankin-Costello and Callum Brittain.
The Lions have won only one of their last 16 games against Blackburn – a 1-0 win during the Covid season in July 2020. They last won at Ewood Park back in 2013 in the FA Cup.
– Stat Station –
- Zian Flemming has now scored in his last three games against Watford (a 2-0 away win on Boxing Day 2022, last year’s 2-2 draw at Vicarage Road and on Saturday). They are his favourite English opponents in terms of goals scored apart from Preston North End, who he has netted against six times in four games.
- The Dutchman’s run of four goals and two assists in 2024 now means he has 12 goal contributions this season in all competitions. With 11 games left in the campaign, he is only six goal contributions down on his debut campaign last season (15 goals, three assists).
- With early goals against both Southampton and Watford – and a Flemming penalty coming not long after Che Adams’ equaliser at St Mary’s – Millwall have not been leading for only 18 minutes of the 180 minutes of regulation time played since Neil Harris’ return as head coach.
- Harris has fared far better with his initial results in the Lions hot seat than on previous occasions. Following the 2013 Boxing Day sacking of Steve Lomas, Harris took caretaker charge alongside Scott Fitzgerald and took just one point from his first two games on that occasion (a 0-0 draw with Doncaster Rovers and a 3-1 loss to Leicester City). In 2015, after Ian Holloway’s dismissal, Harris lost his first game against Bolton Wanderers 2-0 before a 0-0 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion.
- Harris has also fared better in his first two games than his immediate predecessors (and successors). Gary Rowett won his first game against Stoke City 2-0 before a 2-1 loss to Reading. Joe Edwards began with a 4-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday before losing 3-0 at home to Coventry City last November.
- The victory over Watford was Millwall’s first home win in 2024, ending a run of four winless games in all competitions at The Den. It was also the Lions’ first clean sheet since New Year’s Day.
- Nine out of the Lions’ 10 wins this season have come with a clean sheet with last week’s victory at Southampton the exception.
- Millwall have kept the joint-fourth most clean sheets in the league with 11 – after Leeds United (15), West Bromwich Albion (15) and Leicester City (12). Ipswich Town also have 11. Blackburn have the second-fewest clean sheets (5), only in front of Rotherham United (3).
- Having started 24 of his first 27 Millwall games, Brooke Norton-Cuffy has been absent from the starting line-up for five consecutive matches, with two of those five games due to injury.
- Duncan Watmore’s brace against Blackburn on the final day of last season was the last time any Millwall player has scored more than a single goal in a game.
- George Honeyman has been booked in six of his last 12 Championship appearances.
- Blackburn have won six and lost eight of their 17 home games so far this season.
- Sammie Szmodics is the league’s top scorer with 19 goals so far. He only registered five goals in 34 games throughout the entirety of last season for Blackburn.
- Millwall are winless in their last seven trips to Blackburn and haven’t beaten Rovers in any of their last seven attempts home or away.
Injury List (3)
Kevin Nisbet – hamstring – last match: vs Preston – January 27 – Long-term absence
Shaun Hutchinson – calf – last match: vs Bristol City – January 1 – Expected to still be out
Tom Bradshaw – Achilles – last match: vs Southampton – February 24 – Long-term absence
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Suspension Watch – players with two or more yellows so far (10 yellow cards accumulated in the first 37 games will result in a two game suspension).
Jake Cooper – 8 (booked against Middlesbrough, Swansea, Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland, Leicester, Stoke and Norwich)
George Saville – 8 (booked against Stoke, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday (x2), Coventry, Sunderland and Leicester, and Ipswich)
George Honeyman – 7 (booked against Ipswich, QPR, Norwich, Middlesbrough, Preston, Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton)
Murray Wallace – 6 (booked against Plymouth, Southampton, Coventry, Leicester, QPR and Hull)
Ryan Leonard – 6 (booked against Plymouth, Cardiff, Norwich, Bristol City, Ipswich and Watford)
Danny McNamara – 5 (booked against West Brom, Plymouth, Hull, Ipswich and Watford)
Zian Flemming – 5 (booked against Watford (x2), Ipswich, QPR and Preston)
Wes Harding – 4 (booked against Birmingham, Hull, Leicester and Stoke)
Brooke Norton-Cuffy – 4 (booked against Birmingham, Plymouth, Watford and Bristol City)
Ryan Longman – 4 (booked against Rotherham, Swansea, Southampton and Middlesbrough)
Joe Bryan – 3 (booked against Middlesbrough (x2) and Hull)
Billy Mitchell – 3 (booked against Norwich, Stoke and QPR)
Casper De Norre – 3 (booked against Hull (x2) and Ipswich)
Shaun Hutchinson – 2 (booked against Bristol City and Cardiff)
Aidomo Emakhu – 2 (booked against Preston and QPR)
Duncan Watmore – 2 (booked against Sunderland and Norwich)
Japhet Tanganga – 2 (booked against Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton)