THE odds on Millwall are daunting enough just to beat AFC Bournemouth this Saturday without even thinking about what else needs to happen.
The Lions are 5/1 outsiders to win on the south coast. A combination of other results could then see them finish in the top six but the long and the short of it is they need three points against Scott Parker’s side and then hope two of Middlesbrough, Luton Town and Sheffield United slip up.
It’s a tough ask at the Vitality Stadium but the Lions have plenty going for them.
They have lost just two of their last 16 games – more than a third of the season – winning nine and drawing five. That kind of form is close to automatic promotion.
There is also the Lions’ record against the top six. Apart from losing twice to Fulham – and those 2-1 and 3-0 defeats don’t look too bad now in light of the Cottagers winning 7-0 three times this season and 6-2 twice – Millwall have taken points in six of the other nine games. They drew 1-1 against the Cherries at The Den in November but on the balance of good chances they should have beaten them.
Lions manager Gary Rowett is again set to be without defenders Daniel Ballard and Scott Malone, but Jed Wallace should be in consideration to start after being deemed not fit enough last weekend before he came on and got two assists.
Rowett could decide to keep some of his pacier players such as Oliver Burke, Tyler Burey and Mason Bennett in reserve until later in the game when there should be more space for them to try to exploit. That was the rationale behind playing Wallace for the last 40 minutes rather than the first hour against Peterborough United.
Against the Posh, Rowett switched from five at the back to four for the second half with Ryan Leonard pushing forward into midfield. Leonard, though, will likely start on the right-side of the back three in a 5-2-1-2 formation.
Alternatively, Rowett could decide on a 5-2-3 formation with Wallace and one other winger either side of top-scorer Benik Afobe in attack.
It could be the last involvement in a Millwall squad for Wallace, Afobe, Burke, Maikel Kieftenbeld and Alex Pearce.
The odds on a top-six finish, and so another home game at The Den this season, are 25/1. After a brief pitch incursion by some fans last weekend, Rowett and the players were able to go on a lap of honour.
“It was a nice way to finish the league campaign at home,” Rowett said. “After a pretty good season, to win 3-0 and give the fans a little bit of appreciation for the way they’ve supported us was really good.
“Seeing the players on the pitch afterwards with their families always makes for a nice atmosphere after the last game.
“Of course, as a manager, you never feel like it is the last game so it’s perhaps a bit harder to enjoy it as much. I’m walking around the pitch thinking about the last game and what we’ve got to do and the permutations.
“But look, it was a nice way to finish the campaign at home for everyone involved. The players really enjoyed it and it always helps when the result goes your way.”
The Lions have sold out the away end at the Vitality Stadium, with more than 1,300 supporters heading to the south coast, even if it’s more in hope than with any real expectations their season will extend beyond the weekend.
Bournemouth clinched automatic promotion by beating Nottingham Forest 1-0 on Tuesday and they will finish second behind Fulham.
Supporters should note the earlier kick-off time of 12.30pm
Possible Millwall starting XI: 5-2-1-2: Bialkowski; McNamara, Leonard, Hutchinson, Cooper, Wallace; Mitchell, Saville; J Wallace; Afobe, Bradshaw.
Match odds: Bournemouth 4/6 Draw 3/1 Millwall 5/1
Last meeting: Championship (November 24, 2021): Millwall 1-1 Bournemouth (Afobe 67; Solanke 44).
Image: Millwall FC