BOTH ends of the table could be affected as Millwall take on Leicester City in what is potentially a make-or-break game at The Den.
With five matches remaining of the Championship season, every kick of the ball now matters with the majority of the league still fighting for something.
The Lions have been unable to escape an engrossing relegation battle at the bottom of the league where they now seem incredibly vulnerable after back-to-back defeats to Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town.
But fans of Leicester will also have be feeling anxious given the thrilling three-way title scrap taking place at the top of the division.
The Foxes lead Ipswich Town by a point and Leeds United by two and they have a game in hand on their promotion rivals. Crucially, both Ipswich and Leeds lost at the weekend.
With Leicester also defeated on Good Friday at Bristol City, it’s clear we are now at the stage of the season where nerves and pressure can take on a life of their own.
Enzo Maresca’s side will return to the Premier League if they win their remaining games. Given they were promotion favourites when the season began, they will not want to leave themselves having to face the pressurised lottery of the play-offs where Southampton could lie in wait.
The expectations on their shoulders could work nicely to Millwall’s advantage. The Lions are famously more comfortable being the underdogs and that fact was painfully illustrated in Yorkshire recently as they stumbled to consecutive defeats.
Neil Harris will point to the number of chances missed and penalty appeals he believes were incorrectly waved away in both games. But either way the pressure is now back on Millwall in a way it hasn’t been since February’s clash against Sheffield Wednesday. They cannot afford to be so sloppy against the league leaders.
This will be the third meeting between these sides after December’s league match at the King Power Stadium and January’s third-round FA Cup game both ended 3-2 to the Foxes.
Despite the defeats, both losses offered signs of encouragement that Millwall can compete against Leicester even with the chasm in resources between the clubs.
One of the Foxes’ goalscorers from the FA Cup game, Cesare Casadei, was recalled by Chelsea earlier this year for reasons that still aren’t particularly clear. Meanwhile, Kasey McAteer is out injured.
Millwall are also missing players with Duncan Watmore, who scored and was arguably Millwall’s best player in the second 3-2 loss, ruled out while Tom Bradshaw and Kevin Nisbet are not expected to be ready to return. Joe Bryan and Murray Wallace are also out and Danny McNamara will likely continue at left-back.
Given Millwall’s form and the fact they will almost certainly be relying on counter-attacks throughout the night, you wonder if Harris might be tempted to gamble and start a player like Romain Esse or Adam Mayor and take advantage of their pace.
But it is far more likely Harris will remain faithful with the seven players he has started in all eight games so far – Matija Sarkic, Ryan Leonard, Japhet Tanganga, Jake Cooper, George Honeyman, George Saville and Zian Flemming – and then opt for more experience around them to navigate a tricky occasion and an anxious crowd.
Leicester have beaten Millwall in five of their last six meetings.
– Stat Station –
- Defeats to Rotherham and Huddersfield means Millwall have now lost nine of their last 13 away games.
- Goals by Dan James for Leeds, John Swift for West Brom, Charlie Wyke for Rotherham and Rhys Healey for Huddersfield means that four of the last five goals scored against Millwall have been by substitutes.
- Two of Ricardo Pereira’s four goals this season have come against Millwall. The Leicester defender is the only player to have scored in both of the 3-2 games this season. Three of the Lions’ four goalscorers – Watmore, Bradshaw and Nisbet – will be missing with injury.
- Millwall are looking to match their best run of four straight home games unbeaten this season, something they previously did under Joe Edwards. With two wins and a draw, Neil Harris has not lost at home since returning to The Den. He is also yet to see his side concede a goal from open play in front of home fans.
- Jake Cooper, who is yet to score this season, missed a big chance in the defeat against Huddersfield and is now at -2.9 on the expected goals (xG) ranking, the lowest of any Millwall player. (The expected goals stat dictates how many goals players can be expected to score based on the quality of their chances). Second lowest is Watmore with -1.3. At the other end of the scale, Joe Bryan with two goals so far is outperforming his expected goals rating by 1.9.
- Despite the downturn in results, Millwall’s xG under Harris has actually been improving in recent games:
Southampton: 1.1 (would be lower without the penalty)Watford: 0.5Blackburn: 0.3Birmingham: 0.8Leeds: 0.6West Brom: 1.4Rotherham: 2.0Huddersfield: 1.0
- With 42 points from 20 games, Leicester have the best away record in the league. Millwall have the third-worst home record in the Championship.
- Alarmingly, the Lions have also scored fewer goals at home than already-relegated Rotherham (17 compared to 19). Millwall have the joint-fewest home goals along with Stoke City while Leicester have the most away goals (39).
- With 10 starts in a row, Ryan Leonard is enjoying his best run in the team this season. His 30 appearances in this campaign are the most he has made in his injury-hit Millwall career since his 37 appearances in his debut campaign in 2018-19.
- Jamie Vardy is on course to end the season as Leicester’s top-scorer for the seventh time in his career. The 37-year-old has 14 league goals this season and four in his last five games.
Elsewhere…
It will be a big night at Home Park tomorrow when Plymouth Argyle host Queens Park Rangers. The Director of Football Neil Dewsnip and first-team coach Kevin Nancekivell replaced the sacked Ian Foster for a crucial 1-0 win against Rotherham last Friday. QPR had a chance to pull clear of the bottom three but lost to Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday.
Millwall fans on social media have repeatedly raised the ironic prospect of Gary Rowett being the man to relegate the Lions now he’s in charge of Birmingham City. The Blues host Cardiff City on Wednesday night with the Bluebirds’ season now effectively over given their 11-point gap to the play-offs, providing a big chance for Rowett and co.
The other teams in and around the bottom three have interesting games with Sheffield Wednesday hosting in-form Norwich City while Huddersfield go to a Preston North End side who are still outsiders to get a top six place.
Injury List (5)
Kevin Nisbet – hamstring – last match: vs Preston – January 27 – Mid-April return expected
Tom Bradshaw – Achilles – last match: vs Southampton – February 24 – Mid-April return expected
Joe Bryan – groin – last match: vs West Brom – March 29 – A couple of weeks out
Murray Wallace – back – last match: vs Rotherham – April 1 – Out for the rest of the season
Duncan Watmore – unknown issue – last match: vs Rotherham – April 1 – Out of this game
Suspension Watch – players with two or more yellows so far (15 yellow cards accumulated before the end of the regular season will result in a three game suspension).
Jake Cooper – 9 (booked against Middlesbrough, Swansea, Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland, Leicester, Stoke, Norwich and Leeds)
George Saville – 9 (booked against Stoke, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday (x2), Coventry, Sunderland and Leicester, Ipswich and Huddersfield)
Ryan Leonard – 9 (booked against Plymouth, Cardiff, Norwich, Bristol City, Ipswich, Watford, Birmingham, Leeds and Huddersfield)
George Honeyman – 8 (booked against Ipswich, QPR, Norwich, Middlesbrough, Preston, Sheffield Wednesday, Southampton and Leeds)
Murray Wallace – 6 (booked against Plymouth, Southampton, Coventry, Leicester, QPR and Hull)
Zian Flemming – 6 (booked against Watford (x2), Ipswich, QPR, Preston and Leeds)
Danny McNamara – 6 (booked against West Brom, Plymouth, Hull, Ipswich, Watford and Huddersfield)
Joe Bryan – 5 (booked against Middlesbrough (x2), Hull, Birmingham and West Brom)
Wes Harding – 4 (booked against Birmingham, Hull, Leicester and Stoke)
Brooke Norton-Cuffy – 4 (booked against Birmingham, Plymouth, Watford and Bristol City)
Ryan Longman – 4 (booked against Rotherham, Swansea, Southampton and Middlesbrough)
Billy Mitchell – 4 (booked against Norwich, Stoke, QPR and Huddersfield)
Casper De Norre – 3 (booked against Hull (x2) and Ipswich)
Japhet Tanganga – 3 (booked against Sheffield Wednesday, Southampton and Blackburn)
Shaun Hutchinson – 2 (booked against Bristol City and Cardiff)
Aidomo Emakhu – 2 (booked against Preston and QPR)
Duncan Watmore – 2 (booked against Sunderland and Norwich)